arthai-marketplace

/roi-calculator

Calculate ROI for AI initiatives with sensitivity analysis.

Synopsis

/roi-calculator <client-name> <--initiative name>

When to use it

Putting defensible numbers behind a proposal — costs, benefits, payback, NPV, IRR
Stress-testing an initiative’s economics before a client commits budget
Not for: identifying or prioritizing which initiatives to model — that’s /opportunity-map; or writing the proposal itself — that’s /pitch-generator

Quickstart

/roi-calculator acme-corp

What you’ll see: a financial-inputs questionnaire, then full cost and benefit models, a 12-month cash flow projection, payback/NPV/IRR metrics, and a 3x3 sensitivity matrix — saved to the client’s assessment directory with a summary of the key results.

Examples

/roi-calculator acme-corp                                    # model the top 3 initiatives by weighted score
/roi-calculator acme-corp --initiative "Intelligent Document Processing"
                                                             # model a single named initiative

Arguments & flags

Flag	Values	Default	What it does
`--initiative`	initiative name	top 3 by weighted score	Focus the model on one initiative from the opportunity matrix

What it does

Gathers financial inputs — user-confirmation checkpoint: asks 8 questions via AskUserQuestion (current process costs, FTEs and fully-loaded cost, revenue, margins, error rates, discount rate, infrastructure constraints). Unanswered questions fall back to stated defaults — e.g. $85,000/year FTE cost, 10% discount rate.
Builds the cost model — implementation (one-time), infrastructure (monthly), training (one-time + ongoing), and maintenance (annual), each as low-high ranges, rolled into a 3-year Total Cost of Ownership.
Builds the benefit model — time savings (with conservative and optimistic scenarios), error reduction, revenue impact valued at operating margin, and risk reduction.
12-month cash flow projection — month-by-month costs vs benefits with a stated ramp (0% in months 1-2 rising to 100% by month 10), showing net and cumulative cash flow.
Key financial metrics — payback period, 3-year NPV at the chosen discount rate, estimated IRR (interpolated, since no iterative solver runs), and 3-year ROI, in a summary table.
Sensitivity analysis — a 3x3 matrix of cost scenarios (best/expected/worst) against benefit scenarios (optimistic/base/pessimistic), plus a breakeven analysis and a top-5 assumptions-and-risks table.

All projections are labeled as estimates, use conservative defaults, and show every calculation transparently. If IRR is negative or payback exceeds 24 months in the expected case, the initiative is flagged as high-risk.

Output & artifacts

Written to consulting-toolkit/clients/<client-name>/:

assessment/roi-model.md — inputs, cost model, benefit model, 12-month cash flow, payback/NPV/IRR/ROI with all formulas shown
assessment/sensitivity-analysis.md — scenario definitions, 3x3 matrix, breakeven analysis, assumptions table, and conservative/balanced/aggressive recommendations
A key-results summary in the conversation, with a pointer to /pitch-generator <client-name> --format proposal to fold the numbers into a proposal

Troubleshooting

Problem	Fix
`Required data not found for <client-name>`	Run `/client-discovery` and `/opportunity-map` first — the model needs the profile, intake, opportunity matrix, and roadmap
Client can’t provide a financial input	Skip it — the skill substitutes documented industry defaults and clearly marks the assumption
Initiative flagged as high-risk	Expected when IRR is negative or payback exceeds 24 months — revisit scope or approach before proposing
Numbers look too precise	Key metrics should be presented as ranges, not points — ask for the range presentation if a point estimate slipped through

/consulting — the engagement orchestrator; runs this in the propose phase
/opportunity-map — produces the scored initiatives this skill models
/pitch-generator — uses these numbers in the proposal’s Investment & ROI section
/solution-architect — complements this with a technical cost model